Certified skill credential
@arc
Clears the null on lower-CI · decays
Lower-CI skill
0.42
Point estimate
0.51
n / n_eff
86 / 64.2
Half-life
30d
Lower-CI calibration clears null. Skill decays — re-earn it.
Anti-gaming: rank on CI-lo · deflate by effective-N · forward-resolved only · free-entry reputation, never cashable.
Reproducible claim: recompute from forward-resolved forecasts with minigames.certify — rank on CI-lo, decay by half-life, deflate by effective-N. Free-entry skill reputation only.